PENGASSAN-Dangote Row Threatens Electricity Stability Nationwide, NISO Warns

The ongoing PENGASSAN vs. Dangote Refinery dispute could destabilize Nigeria’s electricity supply, NISO warns.

Nigeria’s fragile electricity supply system is once again facing a major threat, this time from an escalating industrial dispute between the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) and the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. The Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) has sounded the alarm, warning that the standoff could have devastating consequences for the country’s already struggling power sector.  Electricity remains a lifeline for homes, businesses, industries, and national development. Any disruption in the delicate balance of power generation, transmission, and distribution poses a serious risk not just to comfort and convenience but also to the economy, public safety, and national security. With PENGASSAN threatening a nationwide strike and the Dangote Refinery at the center of the controversy, Nigerians are now watching anxiously to see how this dispute unfolds. In this article, we take a detailed look at the unfolding row, the concerns raised by the Nigerian Independent System Operator, the potential impact on electricity stability nationwide, and what stakeholders must do to prevent a full-blown power crisis. 

The conflict was triggered when Dangote Petroleum Refinery reportedly dismissed over 800 workers, sparking outrage from PENGASSAN. The union, one of the most powerful in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, wasted no time in mobilizing against what it described as unfair labor practices.On Saturday, during an emergency National Executive Council (NEC) meeting, PENGASSAN resolved to commence a nationwide strike, directing its members across all oil and gas installations to down tools until the refinery reversed the dismissals. By Sunday, the union had made its position public, warning that the strike would begin on Monday unless immediate action was taken. The timing of the strike threat could not be worse. Nigeria is currently battling economic challenges, fuel scarcity in some regions, and power shortages that have crippled industries. Dangote Refinery, with its strategic role in gas and crude oil supply, sits at the heart of the country’s energy chain. This explains why the Nigerian Independent System Operator quickly intervened with a strongly worded warning. 

In its official statement, the Nigerian Independent System Operator said it was deeply concerned about the potential consequences of the dispute on the national electricity grid. 
The statement read:

“The Nigerian Independent System Operator has observed with concern the ongoing dispute between the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria and Dangote Refinery, which has resulted in directives to suspend the supply of crude oil and natural gas to the facility. NISO wishes to draw attention to the potential implications of this action on the nation’s power sector. The national grid relies heavily on gas-fired generation, and any sustained disruption in gas supply would constrain generation capacity, affect system operations and undermine the stability and reliability of electricity supply across the country.”

In simple terms, NISO is warning that if the dispute drags on, power plants across Nigeria could face shortages of natural gas, which is the main fuel used in electricity generation. Without enough gas supply, generation capacity would drop drastically, leading to blackouts, load-shedding, and possibly a total grid collapse.

To understand the gravity of NISO’s warning, one must look at the structure of Nigeria’s electricity sector. Over 70 percent of electricity generated in Nigeria comes from gas-fired power plants. Hydroelectric dams like Kainji, Jebba, and Shiroro provide some capacity, but they are not nearly enough to meet national demand. Gas is the backbone of the Nigerian electricity system. From major plants like Egbin, Afam, Geregu, and Omotosho to newer Independent Power Producers (IPPs), the reliance on gas supply is overwhelming. Dangote Refinery, being one of the largest single-train refineries in the world and a major player in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, is strategically positioned not just for fuel refining but also for natural gas distribution to power plants. Any disruption in operations there sends ripple effects across the energy ecosystem.

If PENGASSAN goes ahead with the nationwide strike and Dangote Refinery’s operations remain halted, Nigeria could experience:
1. Massive Load Shedding
Power generation companies (GenCos) will struggle to operate at full capacity due to limited gas supply, forcing the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) to ration electricity. This means more frequent blackouts for households and businesses.

2. National Grid Instability
The national grid is already fragile, with frequent collapses reported in recent years. Any sustained reduction in generation capacity increases the risk of grid imbalance, leading to partial or total grid collapse.

3. Industrial Disruption
Manufacturing, banking, telecoms, and other sectors that rely on stable power will suffer setbacks. Many companies may be forced to rely heavily on diesel generators, further increasing the cost of doing business.

4. Economic Losses 
According to the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), the economy loses over ₦10 billion daily to power shortages. A nationwide disruption could multiply this figure, worsening Nigeria’s economic woes.

5. Public Unrest
Nigerians are already dealing with high inflation, unemployment, and insecurity. Prolonged blackouts could trigger widespread protests, compounding the political and social tension in the country.

In its appeal, NISO urged all parties involved to embrace dialogue and lawful mechanisms of dispute resolution rather than confrontation.
The statement concluded:

“While NISO is considering measures to mitigate total grid collapse, we urge all parties involved to embrace dialogue and lawful mechanisms of dispute resolution in the overall interest of the economy and the well-being of Nigerians at large. We reaffirm our commitment to ensuring a secure and reliable operation of the national grid and will continue to support wider efforts aimed at safeguarding energy security.”

This call for dialogue is not new in Nigeria’s labor relations. However, what makes this situation different is the sheer scale of its potential impact on energy security, which directly affects every Nigerian.

Many Nigerians now look to the Federal Government to step in and mediate between PENGASSAN and Dangote Refinery. The Ministry of Labour and Employment, as well as the Ministry of Power, will likely play key roles in brokering peace. The government faces a delicate balancing act: protecting workers’ rights while ensuring that critical national infrastructure like the refinery and the power grid are not disrupted. Failure to act swiftly could worsen public anger, especially if blackouts become widespread.

Energy consultant Dr. Charles Omoruyi told reporters:

“This is not just a labor issue; it is a national security issue. Gas supply is the oxygen of Nigeria’s electricity sector. If this dispute is not resolved quickly, the consequences will be catastrophic.”

Labor Relations Expert Mrs. Funmi Adebayo added:

“While PENGASSAN has a right to protest unfair dismissals, it must also consider the wider impact on Nigerians. A balance must be struck through negotiation, arbitration, or even presidential intervention if necessary.”

This dispute highlights a larger issue: Nigeria’s over-reliance on a few strategic players for both oil refining and gas supply. Dangote Refinery was expected to be a game-changer for Nigeria’s energy independence, but this row shows how vulnerable the system is to labor disputes and corporate decisions. Experts argue that Nigeria must diversify its energy supply sources, invest in renewable energy, and build more decentralized gas supply systems. Otherwise, every strike or disruption in one company could paralyze the entire nation.
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The ongoing dispute between PENGASSAN and Dangote Refinery is more than just an industrial relations issue; it is a potential national crisis with far-reaching implications for Nigeria’s electricity stability, economic growth, and social well-being. The warning from the Nigerian Independent System Operator should not be taken lightly. Gas supply is the lifeline of the power sector, and any disruption could plunge the nation into prolonged darkness. What Nigeria needs now is urgent dialogue, responsible leadership from both the union and Dangote Refinery, and swift government intervention. Nigerians cannot afford another avoidable power crisis. As events unfold in the coming days, the spotlight will remain on PENGASSAN, Dangote Refinery, and the government to see whether reason will prevail over confrontation.

By PrimeLineInfo