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| Nimet |
The forecast was made public in Abuja by Festus Keyamo during the presentation of NiMet’s 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction, which outlines rainfall patterns, dry spells, and temperature outlooks across the country.
States projected to experience a longer-than-normal rainy season include Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba.
The outlook matters for farmers, emergency agencies, and state governments, as changes in the length of the rainy season affect food production, flood risk, water management, and infrastructure planning.
Early and late rainfall patterns across Nigeria
NiMet also expects early rainfall onset in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, and Oyo, as well as parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba.
By contrast, Borno State is projected to experience a late onset of rains.
Rainfall is expected to end earlier than usual in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger. However, a delayed cessation is forecast for Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna, reinforcing the projection of a longer-than-normal rainy season in those areas.
Parts of Borno, Yobe, and Niger are expected to record a shorter rainy season.
NiMet’s forecast indicates that most parts of Nigeria will receive near-average annual rainfall. Above-normal rainfall is expected in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom, and the Federal Capital Territory. Below-normal rainfall is projected for parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun.
The agency warned of severe dry spells lasting more than 15 days in parts of Oyo and Ogun between March and May. Moderate dry spells are expected in Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, Delta, and parts of Kwara.
During the June to August period, dry spells of up to 21 days are forecast for parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara.
NiMet also predicts a prolonged “August Break,” also known as the Little Dry Season, starting in late July. Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo are expected to see between 28 and 40 days of reduced rainfall, with moderate effects in Ondo and parts of Kwara and Edo.
Temperatures across most of the country are expected to be warmer than the long-term average during the early months of the year.
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The agency cautioned that isolated heavy rains in southern Nigeria should not be mistaken for the start of the rainy season, urging farmers and other rainfall-dependent sectors to follow the official onset dates. NiMet said the longer-than-normal rainy season forecast should guide planning decisions at both state and community levels in 2026.
By Primelineinfo
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